A dense, soft spiral of tiny coloured dots radiating from the centre and fading out
SowCast
Plant apart. Profit together.
An early warning for farmers, before everyone plants the same crop.
Team Tomato Theory · Maharshi Patel & Jay Bhatt · Queen of Angels’ Convent School · GIC 2026 Junior · Bio Economy & Agriculture
One box of tomatoes · Kolar, Karnataka · 2023
Rs 2,300
July: a 15 kg box at Kolar market
Rs 45
Late September: the same box
Same market. Same crop. Two months apart. Some farmers stopped picking.
Source: Deccan Herald, 26 Sep 2023 (box prices Rs 45–120 in late September) · 02
What went wrong?
Too many farmers planted the same crop at once
Tomato arriving at Kolar market in September (lakh quintals)
3.82
2.31
4.21
2021
2022
2023
+82%
more tomatoes than the year before, all hitting the market in the same weeks
7 AUG 2023 · THE WARNING
Nurseries report seedling sales have doubled. One owner warns a crash is coming.
Sources: Deccan Herald, 7 Aug 2023 and 26 Sep 2023 (Kolar APMC arrival figures) · 03
Why does this happen?
When every farmer gets the same good advice, they all plant the same crop
Last month’s price
The neighbours
The seed dealer
The farming app
ALL SAY
“Plant tomato.”
SO
Same harvest weeks
RESULT
Price crash
Every farmer’s choice is sensible on its own. Together, they flood the market.
SowCast · 04
Doesn’t anyone forecast this?
Price forecasts already exist. The crashes keep coming.
2020
Sep 2023
Jan 2025
Feb 2025
Govt launches MIEWS: price forecasts and advice to avoid boom-and-bust planting
Karnataka: Kolar tomato crash
Maharashtra: glut after farmers planted more following high prices
Andhra: prices fall below picking cost
A forecast given once, the same for everyone, can’t see a herd forming in real time.
Sources: Business Standard, Feb 2020; Deccan Herald, Sep 2023; FreshPlaza, Jan 2025; CropGPT, Feb 2025 · 05
Can we see a glut coming?
A glut is visible in the nursery weeks before it hits the market
A nursery tray of seedlings, with most cells sprouting in tomato red to show a rush of the same crop
90%
of tomato farmers in one major study bought their seedlings from nurseries
25–30 days
a tomato seedling spends in the nursery before it is planted out
Count the seedlings sold today, and you can see next season’s harvest coming.
Sources: GIZ 2016 tomato value chain study (Narayangaon, Maharashtra); ICAR-IIVR nursery guidance · 06
So what is SowCast?
SowCast warns farmers when too many others are planting for the same harvest weeks, while there is still time to change.
A crowding meter with green, yellow and red zones; the needle points into red
Think of it as a traffic meter for crops:
Green: safe to plant for this week
Yellow: it is getting crowded
Red: too many are planting. Shift your dates.
We never tell a farmer what to grow. We tell them when the crowd is heading for the same weeks.
SowCast = Sow + forecast · 07
How does it work?
Four steps, repeated every week
1
Count
Nurseries tell us how many seedlings of each crop they sold this week.
2
Predict
Our AI works out how much will reach the market in each future week.
3
Warn
If a week is too crowded, farmers get an SMS: plant a little later.
4
Sell ahead
Buyers book crop for the safe weeks before it is even planted.
We launch with steps 1 to 3. Step 4 is added once the warnings have proved accurate.
SowCast · 08
What would it have changed in 2023?
Kolar farmers would have had seven weeks of warning, instead of none
July 2023
7 August
Late September
Prices hit Rs 2,300 a box. Farmers rush to plant tomato.
Nurseries report seedling sales have doubled.
With SowCast: the meter turns red the same week, and farmers who have not planted yet are told to shift.
The same box sells for Rs 45.
The warning already existed in 2023. It was a quote in a newspaper. SowCast turns it into an alert every farmer gets.
Dates and prices: Deccan Herald, 7 Aug 2023 and 26 Sep 2023 · 09
Who uses it, and what do they get?
Three users, one forecast
Tomato is crowded for late September near you.
Planting two weeks later is safer.
Farmer
Gets an SMS or WhatsApp alert in their own language. Free.
Expected supply, week by week
Buyer
Processors and retail chains see which weeks will be short or flooded, and book supply early.
DISTRICT ALERT
Tomato · Red
Too much planting for one harvest window. Advise farmer groups now.
Government
District officers get early alerts, so price-support schemes act before the crash.
Concept designs of what each user will see · 10
Where is the AI?
AI answers four questions, every week
1
How much is the whole region planting?
From a sample of nurseries
2
How much reaches market each week?
Using past market arrivals across India
3
How much can the market take before prices crash?
Using past prices
4
If we warn everyone, will they all crowd the next week?
Simulated before any alert goes out
Question 4 is what makes SowCast different: we split the advice, so different farmers get different safe weeks.
Data: nursery sales, Agmarknet market arrivals and prices, AgriStack crop-sown records, weather · 11
How do we make money?
Buyers and governments pay. Farmers never do.
WHO
WHAT THEY GET
WHAT THEY PAY
Buyers
Crop booked in advance, in the weeks they need
A fee on every tonne booked
State governments
Early district alerts before a crash
A yearly subscription
Farmers and FPOs
Crowding alerts and a route to buyers
Nothing
Nurseries
A forecast of how many seedlings to grow
Their weekly sales data
Why buyers pay: a processor with a guaranteed supply in the right week avoids both shortages and gluts.
FPO = Farmer Producer Organisation, a registered group of farmers that sells together · 12
How big is the opportunity?
Start in Kolar. Grow to every tomato field in India.
Three nested circles: India, Karnataka, and Kolar as our starting point
19.4 million tonnes
India’s tomato harvest in one year
64,250 hectares
of tomato grown in Karnataka
Kolar first
Asia’s second-largest tomato market, and the 2023 crash
Next crops: onion and potato. The government already treats tomato, onion and potato as one price-crisis group under Operation Greens.
Sources: GIZ 2016 (India production, 2015); Karnataka horticulture area statistics; Operation Greens (MoFPI) · 13
Who else is trying?
Others forecast prices. Nobody watches the crowd.
Counts what is being planted now
Different advice to spread farmers out
Links farmers to buyers
Farm apps (e.g. DeHaat)
✕
✕
✓
Govt price forecasts (MIEWS)
✕
✕
✕
Korea’s planting survey (KREI)
Survey, not live
✕
✕
SowCast
✓
✓
✓
Telangana tried ordering farmers what to plant in 2020 and dropped it. We only advise on timing.
SowCast · 14
Why is this possible now?
Three things that were not possible five years ago
Map pin
Crops get counted
AgriStack’s digital crop survey records what is sown on each plot, so our estimates can be checked.
Bar chart
Market data is open
Daily arrivals and prices from thousands of markets are public on Agmarknet, ready to train on.
Science flask
The science is fresh
An Oct 2026 field trial showed crowd-aware advice can spread people out. We found no one applying it to farming.
Sources: AgriStack Digital Crop Survey (MoA&FW); agmarknet.gov.in; Chiang et al., arXiv 2610.08275 (Oct 2026) · 15
What will we do next?
Prove the warning first. Then add buyers.
STEP 1 · TEST
Run SowCast on past Kolar seasons. Would it have caught 2023?
STEP 2 · PILOT
Live warnings in Kolar with partner nurseries and farmer groups
STEP 3 · SELL AHEAD
First buyer contracts: a guaranteed floor price plus a share of any upside
STEP 4 · GROW
More districts and states, then onion and potato
What if nurseries won’t share?
They get a free demand forecast back
What if farmers sell elsewhere?
The floor price protects them on bad days
What if buyers won’t commit?
Contracts start only after warnings prove accurate
SowCast · 16
Who are we?
Team Tomato Theory
MP
Maharshi Patel
Grade 10
JB
Jay Bhatt
Grade 10
WE SHIP
We’ve already shipped FreelanceCFO (freelancecfo.online), a live finance tool for freelancers, and TrustLens, a photo and document forensics tool now in early access.
Queen of Angels’ Convent School · 17
Rows of seedlings spaced evenly apart
When farmers plan together, markets work better.
SowCast
Plant apart. Profit together.
Team Tomato Theory · Maharshi Patel & Jay Bhatt · Queen of Angels’ Convent School · 18